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371. -new- Hulu
Jason
Kilar, out of Amazon, took up the head job of Hulu,
a joint venture of NBC Universal and News Corp, in 2007.
You Tube and Yahoo are the big guys of
Internet video, with Fox Interactive, Hulu, and Nickelodeon following
in their
wake. But Hulu seems to be the
horse with the momentum, having ample advertisers and a surging video
inventory. He only uses professional content—something that pleases
advertisers—and
aggregates content from more than 100 partners. He has bet on streaming
web
rather than user downloads, but he has made using streaming easy. Economist, February 7,
2009, p. 59. To us, however, he
looks like he’s into a lot of TV re-runs and does not enjoy the freedom
and
irreverence of YouTube. (05-20-09)
370. Mall
Bathrooms: Catching People on the Throne
Paco Underhill, the eminently imaginative retail consultant,
remarks that bathrooms at malls and at retailers are pretty much a
disaster. See “Adventures in Toiletries,” Conference Board Review,
January-February 2004. “What always amazes me is that the mall,
which is a temple to blandishment and consumption, can't think of a
single interesting thing to do with a bathroom. Here you've got a
captive audience…” “The restroom could be turned over to one of the
several shops in the mall selling bath-related products, such as soap,
skin cream, fragrance, hair care. Your average mall bathroom's ambience
would be dramatically improved if, say, Aveda or Body Shop furnished
the sinks with samples of various sweet-smelling goods.” “Not long ago
I toured a new prototype store for Lowe's, the home-improvement chain,
with maybe 10 members of the senior marketing team. At some point I
asked to see the ladies' room, which caused a certain amount of unease
among my all-male companions, but we found a woman to enter first to
check if the coast was clear, and in we went. The first shock came when
a quick poll of the group revealed that not one of these men had ever
been in a ladies' room, despite their high position and years of
experience at a company that depends on female customer satisfaction
above practically all else. The second revelation was that the
bathroom, while clean and odorless, was the most generic, no-frills
facility imaginable—kind of weird, I pointed out, in a store that tries
hard to convince people to buy modern, luxurious bathrooms.” (02/18/09)
369. Grand Strategies
“These initiatives are examples of shaping
strategies, which mobilize global ecosystems and transform
industries and markets—often dramatically. A shaping strategy is
no less than an effort to broadly redefine the terms of competition for
a market sector through a positive, galvanizing message that promises
benefits to all who adopt the new terms.” “Shaping Strategy in a
World of Constant Disruption,” Harvard
Business Review, October 2008, pp.81-89 is a jargon-filled but
important article by some semi-gurus.. Despite the thicket of
abstractions and surplus rhetoric, it bravely addresses a significant
notion by implication. We have left the 21st century behind, with
its relatively stable political arrangements, predictable markets, and
guaranteed continuities. Headlong we are thrust into a new world
where the old rules don’t apply and incremental strategies will buy one
little or nothing. Survivors and conquerors must perceive that
they are fighting in a new cosmos that requires grand strategies that
put the lie to all that seemed to be the rules of the road
before. “Turbulent times demand that we learn how to shape the
turbulence around us by creating an effective management ensemble that
moves beyond adaptation…” While the article really does not
present a commanding point of view on how “shaping” really gets done,
and, in fact, there are several offbeat ways to become a grand futurist
that probably even lie outside the authors’ compass, it does make clear
that one must think and operate in very new ways to be a global player
in a digital world. The question for all of us is how do we supplant
the cataracts and dimming eyesight of the 20th century, and use some
sort of psychological laser to bring an entirely different set of eyes
to the 21st. Authors: John Hagel III, strategic consultant;
John Seely Brown, one-time head of PARC, Xerox research center; Lang
Davison, onetime editor of McKinsey
Quarterly. (01-21-09)
368. -new-
Geek Pollster
“Other sites combine polls, notably RealClearPolitics and Pollster, but
FiveThirtyEight,
which drew almost five million page views on Election Day, has
become
one of the breakout online stars of the year.” See “Finding
Fame with
A Prescient Call for Obama,” New
York Times,
November 9, 2008. Young mathematics whiz Nate Silver first
applied his
number skills to baseball, but has since migrated to elections where he
has earned a burst of attention. What he does is use some commonsense
and some algorithms to imaginatively combine the results of a slew of
polls. His readings have proved to be more on the mark than those
of
others. “He weighted all the polls on historical accuracy, and
adjusted them for whether they tended to favor Democrats or Republicans
and other factors, then built a model that simulated elections.”
(01-21-09)
367. Independent Bookstores: Unchained Melody
Paco Underhill, the guru of the shopping mall, says there is a lot of
life left in independent bookstores, if their owners truly have an
independent frame of mind that is determined not to ape the
chains. In fact, we might add, the right independent is stronger
than any chain store during financial downturns, since the automatic
volumes chains usually realize from advertising and marketing fall away
in bad times, and they have a harder time covering their nut. “Almost
all successful independent bookstores are more than just general
booksellers. The easy way they specialize is by picking a genre.” “A
good genre bookstore sells new and used products, features first
editions and autographed copies, maintains a website, and stages
events.” “The big chains do not have the capability to do
anything more than cursory adaptation to individual areas.” The
small ones have restaurants, cafes, put themselves near great
destinations. “BookPeople, in Austin, Texas….is across the street
from the flagship Whole Foods.” It is Paco’s favorite
independent. The Conference
Board Review, January 2008, pp.89-90. (01-06-09)
366. Collaboration
and the Descent of Man
Senator
Ted Kennedy, in a reversal of the first treatment plan outlined for
him, flew to Durham, North Carolina and had what was hailed as
successful brain surgery at Duke University for his brain cancer.
At first Mass General had said he would only undergo chemotherapy and
radiation. What happened is that he convened a national panel of
experts on May 30, some on the phone and some attending in person, and
then decided on a change in course. He had a deadly
glioblastoma. “Opinion about the benefit of surgery for Mr.
Kennedy was divided. Some neurosurgeons strongly favored it; two
did not, Dr. Sawaya said, including himself, largely because the cancer
was not a discrete nodule, but was spread over a large area, making it
unlikely that most of it could be removed.” (See New York
Times,
July 29,2008, pp. D1 and D6.) “Whether the surgery was justified
or not, that Mr. Kennedy had it at Duke embarrassed the Massachusetts
General Hospital, a Harvard teaching institution. The change in
venue strongly suggests that the meeting somehow led to the more
aggressive surgical approach.” Two important and related
conclusions arise from this incident. For major problems
one should convene truly independent experts from a variety of
locations in order to arrive at a well-reasoned solution. We
would add that we would have urged the Senator to include experts—such
as surgeons—who are not part of the cancer community, in order to break
through trade bias. Further, in the medical field, it is
important to get beyond the Boston medical mafia, since the thinking in
that town tends to get ideological, with many there lining up behind
the current local lockjaw ideas. But the main thing is that the
Senator achieved rapid collaboration among competing voices.
What a contrast to “The Descent of Man,” New York Times,
August 10, 2008, p. Wk 12, where it was every man for himself in a
mountaineering debacle on K-2. “In 1953, climbers of K2 knew that
heroism meant sticking together.” On the most recent expedition
11 lives were lost. A Dutch climber Wilco Van Rooijen remarked,
“Everybody was fighting for himself, and I still do not understand why
everybody were leaving each other.” In the Houston expedition
back in 1953, in contrast, all were for one, and one was for all.
When it comes to matters of death or urgency, mutual commitment of
talented men will always far outshine the genius of lone wolfs.
(11/19/08)
365. Big Pharma R & D
The big pharmaceuticals do not have enough drugs in the pipeline.
The cost of each success and each failure is stupendous.
Something has to change about the discovery process. In
“Rebuilding the R & D Engine in Big Pharma,” Harvard Business
Review,
May 1, 2008, Jean-Pierre Garnier, CEO of GlaxoSmithKline, reflects on
what must be done. “From December 2000 to February 2008 the top
15 companies in the industry lost $850 billion in shareholder
value….” The problem is “to return power to the scientists by
reorganizing R & D into small, highly focused groups….”
Studies show that “our productivity is now two or three times as high
as the average of our competitors.” The company has separated
discovery activities directed at first-in-class drugs, from
best-in-class, recognizing that they are quite different kinds of
processes. Switching Phase II and Phase III trials from high cost
places such as the United States and Europe to low cost areas such
India and South America can raise productivity. Garnier thinks
the industry is going to have to place more bets –working on more big
drugs. This will require a shift of money from marketing and the
like to R & D. It will also require many more alliances with
universities and biotech companies.
We suspect that Glaxo,
and all the rest, however, are not going far enough—that R&D has to
be turned on its head. In this vein, one should examine “Putting
Drug Development in Patients’ Hands,” Wall Street Journal,
July 29, 2008, pp. D1-D2. Jay Tenenbaum, an Internet
multimillionaire, had a melanoma, which when it recurred, spread to his
liver. “Frustrated with his treatment options, Dr. Tenenbaum
began investigating other potential therapies.” He created “a
company aimed at helping patients develop new therapies faster and
cheaper for less common diseases, like melanoma, that often don’t
attract major pharmaceutical company research funding.” It is
called ColllabRx.
Wealthy patients are stoking several patient backed research
efforts—the Myelin Repair Foundation (multiple sclerosis), the Cystic
Fibrosis Foundation, etc. Dr. Tenenbaum has also set up Health
Commons,
another component really in the R & D puzzle, since it and its
offspring create collaboration between independent researchers.
Both efforts are driving kinds of efficiencies into the R & D
process that elude ordinary large pharma R & D efforts.
Importantly, we find that all sorts of institutions—government, church,
academia, large companies—are bogged down and cannot move on questions
with the speed that is required. Our last best hope is that
citizens, with some skin in the game, can get done what the goliaths
cannot. A whole array of companies and foundations are emerging
to goad researchers in different institutions to better
collaborate. (11/5/08)
Update:
Patients Who Are Impatient; the Fox Trot
We have previously commented on patients who put fistfuls of cash
behind disease research in which they have a personal interest.
We learn this trend is becoming more pervasive, as is clear from
“Taking Science Personally,” New
York Times, November 11, 2008. “Mr. Fox did indeed come up
with a plan. Like many celebrities who embrace a cause, he started a
foundation, the Michael J. Fox Foundation. Last year, it spent $25.2
million fighting Parkinson’s disease. Although he does not run the
foundation — never has, in fact — he serves as its chairman and
inspirational leader.” “It has used its money to take control of
Parkinson’s research like few other foundations have ever done. In the
process of trying to solve the mysteries of Parkinson’s, it has upended
the way scientific research is done, and the way academics interact
with pharmaceutical and biotech companies, at least in its little
corner of the world. It demands accountability and information sharing
that is almost unheard of in the broad scientific community.”
Forbes has essayed as
well on “Patient Power,” September 15, 2008. pp.70-79. “Inspired by the
CFF’s (Cystic Fibrosis Foundation) success, patient groups with an
entrepreneurial bent have become the drug’s industry’s new power
brokers.” “A hundred more patient-group-backed drugs,
one-twentieth of all the medicines in development, are in human
clinical trials for Parkinson’s, diabetes, muscular dystrophy, and a
litany of cancers.” This article cites a bevy of examples of
drugs that have been pushed by patients with a lot of willpower who
often have enough money in their pockets to make a difference.
(01-21-09)
364. Matsushita: Europe is Very,
Very Different
“Matshushita
says Europe contributed about 45% of its overseas sales of digital
electronics products like televisions and cameras in the year ended
March 2008, compared with 25% from North America. Four years ago,
the two regions were aboutr even.” (See Wall Street Journal,
July
10, 2008, p. B6.) “For all products, sales from Europe and the
U.S. were nearly the same….” In part this results from errors in
the U.S. where the company concentrated on plasma TV sets and focused
on a few retailers. As the U.S. becomes more and more price
competitive, the company is finding Europe attractive where consumers
seem to pay up for quality. It had neglected Europe before
because the U.S. was such a big market. Moreover, it had let
different units in Europe operate independently. With new
leadership in Europe, the company operated on a European basis and
concentrated on big retailers. It started building pan-European
products and became more ambitious in its advertising. Even so it
still trails Sony, Samsung, and others, both in market position and
brand power. Many global companies, such as Tommy
Hilfiger
have come to understand that they have to play a different game in
Europe, quite distinct from what they do in North America or
Asia. The buyers often go for higher end wares than afford better
margins, if less volume. (10/22/08)
363. GE and University of Pittsburgh
“General Electric Company and the University of Pittsburgh Medical
Center have formed a company to help move laboratory analysis of human
tissue into the digital age” (Wall Street Journal,
June 5, 2008, p. B5). Omnyx LLC “hopes to market a ‘virtual
microscope’ within two years that would scan and store images
electronically.” Pathology has been slow to make the digital
adaptation. What makes this combination interesting is that it
illustrates a broader theme—more direct partnerships between academic
institutions and nonprofits with the commercial sector have become
vital in order for breakthrough advances to occur in the
commercialization of technology and the revamping of operations
practices. (9/24/08)
362. Petrobras—Out Front of the
Majors
Today, we suspect, Petrobras is the most interesting oil company in the
world. It has made a major find in its Tupi field, and it has
shown itself to be out front in deepsea drilling technology which is
where all the action is. “Petrobras has riveted the oil industry
since November when it announced that the Tupi field could hold from
five billion to eight billion barrels of oil equivalent.” See the
Wall Street Journal,
June 11, 2008, p. B5. By late 2010 it should be producing 100,000
barrels a day here. Because of its optimism about this find, the
company envisions a massive buildup in its drilling capacity with
leased rigs. (9/10/08)
361. Kodak Rising
Kodak
is showing signs of life, even if its financials aren’t reflecting its
new-found strengths. “Kodak, which once considered itself the
Bell Labs of chemistry, has embraced the digital world and the
researchers who understand it.” (See New York Times,
May 2, 2008, pp. C1 and C2.) “Finally, digital products are flowing
from the labs,” and the workforce is just 1/5 of what it was 20 years
ago. “It has found more efficient ways to make O.L.E.D.’s—organic
light-emitting diodes—for displays in cameras, cellphones, and
televisions. “In 2003 Kodak hired Antonio Perez away from
Hewlett-Packard. Mr. Perez, now the chief executive, has sprinkled
Hewlett alumni … throughout the executive suite,” including Phillip J.
Faraci, Kodak’s president, and Bill Lloyd, chief technology officer. It
has exited health imaging and gotten back into inkjet printing. It now
reaps $250 million a year in licensing intellectual property.
(8/27/08)
360. Bronx
Botanical Garden
Gregory Long has restaged the New York Botanical Garden. Always a
marvel, it had nonetheless grown a bit sleepy. After great stints at
the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Brooklyn Museum, the Museum of
Natural History, the Bronx Zoo, and the New York Public Library, he
took up the Botanical Garden, moving to the Bronx in 1988. (See Wall
Street Journal,
April 23, 2008, p. D9. “When he arrived, the garden had an
endowment of $16.7 million and an operating budget of $18.5 million.
Today, the endowment stands at $266.8 million and the operating budget
is $62.2 million.” He’s renovated the place from top to bottom, not
only redoing and adding buildings, but greatly adding to the plant
stock, expanding the library, and offering major academic programs.
“There is a graduate studies program that enrolls an average of
40 Ph.D. students each year, a science faculty engaged in research
projects all over the world, and an ambitious project now well under
way to digitize all the Herbarium's plant specimens. The School of
Professional Horticulture offers a two-year full-time accredited
program ….” (7/30/08)
359. Better
Dealing with Exploding Bankruptcies
“Building a Better Post-Bankruptcy Board,” Wall Street Journal, May 12,
2008, p. B5 partially grapples with how to bring bankrupt companies
back to health. Generally it has become clear that neither
creditors nor the other short-term powers in bankruptcy proceedings are
likely to choose company builders as board members. The problem
is to get a mix of people to do the choosing who may look beyond narrow
considerations. The major insight in this article is the observation
that smart board committees pick candidates with more than one skill
that has been adjudged vital for the rebuilding of the company.
We would suggest, further, that one is looking for people with skills
that the bankrupt enterprise never had. Business, in the 21st
century, is a totally new creature, and one must have a sense that new
board members can put some new sinews into the failed enterprise.
For instance, superior online abilities is a sine qua non of
retail enterprises now: they are not just a nice add-on, but have
become the heart of the enterprise.
The advent of new ways to deal with bankruptcy come just in time.
They’re on the rise, as described in “Waiting for Armageddon,” The
Economist,
March 29, 2008, pp. 81-82. The spread between “junk” bonds and
American Treasuries, only about 280 basis points a year ago, but in
March 2008 the spread was up to 800 points, for the first time since
March 2003. It reached “862 on March 17th.” The bankruptcy
rate has only edge only a bit, but Moody’s is predicting much worse to
come. Others are predicting draconian failures for companies with
sky-high interest rates. Companies on the worry list include
Beazer Homes, Rite Aid, even Ford Motor. (7/2/08)
358. Strategies
When There is No Solution
“Companies
tend to ignore one complication along the way: They can’t develop
models of the increasingly complex environment in which they
operate. As a result, contemporary strategic-planning processes
don’t help enterprises cope with the big problems they face” (“Strategy
as a Wicked Problem,” Harvard Business Review, May 2008, pp.
100-106). This is an article that should be read with great care
and then ignored. Author John C. Camillus brings his readers face
to face with a reality—that the world has grown inordinately complex
and that the linear processes that corporate spear carriers use to
describe a path through the rat maze lead into blind alleys. But
Camillus offers spongy answers to wending one’s way through the
thousand but-ifs of modern existence. In general corporations and
other institutions have fallen far behind the curve: they have
not evolved at the same rate as the environment in which they seek to
function. Their best hope is to collaboratively involve outsiders
from far and near in all aspects of planning, not just strategic
exercises. They must bring the outside in at a much more rapid
rate. At present there is a wall between them and the world as it
is. This is a very, very interesting article, but only if it
helps corporate leaders realize how radically out of touch they are
with the world as it is becoming. (6/18/08)
357. The
Checklist
We’re reminded that when it was a good airline, American had a
checklist for just about everything. As a friend said, “You know,
the book told the stewardesses just how wide their smile had to be when
they served drinks.” And, you know, things turned out better
there than at other carriers for just that reason. A United
Technologies engineer confirmed the same thing for us. Once upon
a time, American had the best maintenance of the domestic carriers,
because it was so specific about how various processes would get
done. JAL (Japan Airlines) surpassed American but only because
their workers would not take shortcuts at the end of the day.
They would follow every step meticulously no matter what.
All this came to mind when we read Atul Gawande’s “The
Checklist” in The New Yorker,
December 10, 2007. Gawande, incidentally, is another Boston
doctor who does exceptionally fine medical writing for the
magazine. The New Yorker’s best writing is in the
medical area, perhaps stemming from the fact that a key editor is also
a healthcare journalist. Gawande is probably the best, in part
because he is gripped by ethical passions which drive him, more than
his comperes, to think about affordable, effective
healthcare. This disposition gives him a better sense of what it
will take to solve our healthcare crisis than all the posturings of
experts inside and outside the medical community. In other words,
he pays attention to simple basics that can make a difference.
In
this case, he shows what a difference very simple checklists for
complex medical processes can make in avoiding disease and discharging
cured patients from the hospital. “In 2001, though, a
critical-care specialist at Johns Hopkins Hospital named Peter
Pronovost decided to give it a try. He didn’t attempt to make the
checklist cover everything; he designed it to tackle just one problem,
the one that nearly killed Anthony DeFilippo: line infections. On
a sheet of plain paper, he plotted out the steps to take in order to
avoid infections when putting a line in. Doctors are supposed to
(1) wash their hands with soap, (2) clean the patient’s skin with
chlorhexidine antiseptic, (3) put sterile drapes over the entire
patient, (4) wear a sterile mask, hat, gown, and gloves, and (5) put a
sterile dressing over the catheter site once the line is in. Check,
check, check, check, check. These steps are no-brainers; they
have been known and taught for years. So it seemed silly to make
a checklist just for them. Still, Pronovost asked the nurses in
his I.C.U. to observe the doctors for a month as they put lines into
patients, and record how often they completed each step. In more
than a third of patients, they skipped at least one.” By
authorizing nurses to check on the adherence to the correct processes,
the hospital secured a wonderful outcome. “Pronovost and his
colleagues monitored what happened for a year afterward. The
results were so dramatic that they weren’t sure whether to believe
them: the ten-day line-infection rate went from eleven per cent to zero”
“In December, 2006, the Keystone Initiative published its
findings in a landmark article in The New England Journal of
Medicine.
Within the first three months of the project, the infection rate in
Michigan’s I.C.U.s decreased by sixty-six per cent. The typical
I.C.U.—including the ones at Sinai-Grace Hospital—cut its quarterly
infection rate to zero. Michigan’s infection rates fell so low
that its average I.C.U. outperformed ninety per cent of I.C.U.s
nationwide. In the Keystone Initiative’s first eighteen months,
the hospitals saved an estimated hundred and seventy-five million
dollars in costs and more than fifteen hundred lives. The
successes have been sustained for almost four years—all because of a
stupid little checklist.”
“I asked him how much it would
cost for him to do for the whole country what he did for
Michigan. About two million dollars, he said, maybe three, mostly
for the technical work of signing up hospitals to participate state by
state and coördinating a database to track the results. He’s
already devised a plan to do it in all of Spain for less.”
“‘We could get I.C.U. checklists in use throughout the United
States within two years, if the country wanted it,’ he said.”
“So far, it seems, we don’t. The United States could have been
the first to adopt medical checklists nationwide, but, instead, Spain
will beat us. ‘I at least hope we’re not the last,’ Pronovost
said.” (5/14/08)
356. Amazon
Tech
"The
Seattle Internet company, known for being one of the Web's biggest
e-tailers, has recently been focused on delivering online services to
small businesses through a unit known as its Web Services
division. The unit provides services such as storage and advanced
computing capacity, making Amazon an increasingly popular tech
destination for small companies that don’t want to pay upfront for
their own computer infrastructure.” See “Small Firms Tap Amazon’s
Juice,” Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2008, p.
B3. “Started in July 2002, Web Services is part of Amazon’s move
to position itself as more of a technology company, even though its
biggest business involves selling books, music and movies.
According to comments from Amazon Chief Executive Jeff Bezos, the
company is aiming to cater to three types of customers: individual
consumers, merchants and software developers.” “Overall, Amazon
Web Services now boasts 290,000 customers, up from 135,000 in late
2005.” (4/16/08)
355. Guided
Democracy
“CEO Vineet Nayar, 45, has written a case study about HCL’s experiment
for the Harvard Business School…. He believes that in the future,
democratic companies will outperform the command-and-control
dictatorships that have persisted since the industrial revolution” (USA
Today,
December 17, 2007). “Any of our employees can open a
trouble ticket on anyone in this company, on (human resources), on
payroll, on a manager, on anyone. Those with trouble tickets have
to respond. It's like a customer opening a trouble ticket.
A response is required. Otherwise, some departments can become
gods in an organization, because they control the power.” “In
manufacturing, it's been command and control, because it is a single
process. In service companies, especially knowledge-based service
companies, the value gets created in the interface between the employee
and the customer. When you travel on an airline, it is not the
CEO who makes a difference.” “Similarly, the workplace in India
is very command and control. I believe it’s easier to introduce
workplace democracy in Europe and the USA. As a society, the U.S.
is more open to feedback. It gravitates more easily toward its
strengths. But eventually, democracy works everywhere.”
Nayar’s understanding of the service imperative, and how that
necessarily drives corporate democracy is a significant insight.
(4/2/08)
354. Upmarket
Virtues
When
times are bad, you want to serve the rich. That was especially
true during the Great Depression. These days everybody in
consumer goods is trying to migrate to the luxury market where spending
has held up. The latest example is Saks Fifth Avenue. See
“Saks's Wealthy Clients Help It Buck Trend,” Wall Street Journal,
November 21, 2007, p. A10. “‘Our customer feels good,’ Saks Chief
Executive Stephen I. Sadove said yesterday, after the luxury retailer
reported strong earnings for its fiscal third quarter. Saks is on
track to ring up ‘high single-digit’ sales growth in the fourth quarter
at stores open at least a year and spending on Saks-branded credit
cards appears healthy, he said. His one caveat: weakness in
Saks’s lower-level luxury goods, known as bridge products, could lead
to a ‘modest decline in gross margin rate’ in the fourth
quarter.” The Saks organization, which shed its lower income
department store units, is looking pretty smart. The bloom,
however, has come off the rose as even luxury sales slowed in the 4th
quarter of 2007 and 1st quarter of 2008. (2/27/08)
353. Small
Companies: Big Bang
It
has become an open secret that small, unheard of companies can achieve
a loud and profitable voice through the web. Small, independent,
brick-and-mortar independent bookstores have become power retailers by
selling their wares, particularly used books, on the Web, soon
thereafter shutting down their locations on the street. One is more
than 10 times the size it was when it was a small used bookshop in a
southern college town. In “Small Retailers Gain Large Presence on
the Web,” New York Times, December 3, 2007, we learn “The
number of small- and medium-size retailers selling online has swelled
in the last two years, from 21 percent to 32 percent, according to a
survey by IDC, a consulting firm.” “The retailer of quirky home
goods, RealmDekor.com, has experienced occasional sales increases not
because of catalog shipments or television commercials, but because it
formed relationships with bloggers and posted its products on new
‘social shopping sites’ like ThisNext.com
and StyleHive.com.”
“Companies like Yahoo,
Amazon and thousands of independent Web developers have become
considerably better at building slick sites for merchants, sometimes
within a few minutes, for less than $100. Yahoo Store merchants,
for instance, pay $40 to $300 a month, and a commission of 0.75 percent
to 1 percent on each sale. Merchants on the Amazon WebStore pay
$60 monthly, along with a 7 percent commission.” (2/13/08)
352. Grand
Alliances
More
than a decade ago, Peter Drucker said the compelling organizational
trend of our era is alliances and partnerships, not the mergers,
spinoffs, and other investment banking maneuvers that make the
news. Occasionally, however, the strategically important becomes
more transparent. Alliances have become inordinately important
because no one company is powerful enough to dominate its market space
globally and to keep up with all the technological strands that are
changing its business. EDS, under Michael Jordan, has grasped
this point with a vengeance. EDS was virtually the inventor of
big-time outsourcing, and once upon a time it owned the field. No
longer. IBM, for instance, dwarfs it. What it has done is
link itself to a whole nest of partners in order to become collectively
more of a force with the world’s largest corporations. See theWall
Street Journal, July 24, 2007, pp. B1 and B3.
As well, EDS has had to compete with cheap offshore providers,
particularly in India. “But what makes this alliance unusual is
that the partners actually work together under one roof, and operate as
one team pitching a client on a contract and carrying out the
work.” “When EDS unveiled the consortium in October 2004, it had
six partners: Sun, Microsoft, Dell, EMC, Xerox Corp. and Cisco
Systems Inc. Oracle and SAP AG joined later. Today about 250
engineers from partner companies are dedicated to EDS, which houses
them in offices at its main Plano campus and at a facility in Auburn
Hills, Mich.” “In 2006, deals involving the alliance counted for
40% of EDS’s $26.5 billion in contract signings.” In 2007, as of
June, they add up to about 50%. (1/30/08)
351. Wine
Alliances
We
have said elsewhere that the dominant organizing tendency for business
in the 21st century will be alliances. Businesses will thrive not by
owning everybody on the block, but by freely collaborating with other
businesses to grow and prosper. “Wine Made the Co-op Way,” New
York Times,
Oct. 6, 2007 lends credence to this new way of doing business. His
family business sold to Constellation Brands for a tidy figure, Michael
Mondavi is back in the wine business with a different concept. “To
compete with the big guys, the small family-owned wineries need to be
both independent and interdependent,” Mr. Mondavi said. “Own your own
vineyard, maintain your personality and style, but be interdependent on
everything else, like buying glass and negotiating with distributors.”
“Folio
Fine Wine Partners, as Mr. Mondavi’s new venture is called, plans to
stay below 50,000 cases from its own production here.” “That will be
spread among five brands owned by members and friends of the Mondavi
family: Hangtime, I’M, Medusa, Oberon and Spellbound.”
“To
give greater heft to its business, Folio imports wine from Italy
produced by the Frescobaldi family, as well as wines from Spain,
Austria, New Zealand and Argentina. Altogether, Folio sold about
300,000 cases last year.
‘Our import portfolio is $40
million-plus in sales, so I can get the attention of the distributors
to the point where I can at least present Oberon or I’M,’ Mr. Mondavi
said. ‘I was convinced that if we just did our own 100 acres and 40,000
cases, we could never get enough clout in the market.’
Riding piggyback on Folio’s overall business are several much
smaller winemakers.
‘The trend in the wine industry clearly is to tie up less capital,’
said Cyril Penn, Wine Business Monthly’s editor in chief. ‘There are
quite a few of these kind of cooperative ventures sprouting up that are
different spins on it.’
Another
new model is Les Garagistes, a winemakers’ ‘village’ that plans to
break ground next spring in American Canyon, a formerly neglected area
between Napa and Vallejo.
Les Garagistes will offer 12 winemaking
spaces about 4,500 square feet in size, which can be leased by
individual winemakers or groups. Capital equipment, like
crusher/stemmers and wine presses, will be shared, and the wineries
will surround a central courtyard with a café and a tasting
room.”
(1/16/08)
350. The
Power of Power Blogs
Not all blogs work. Most of them don’t. But some build a
tremendous audience for struggling companies. In this vein, see
“Toy Stories: Show-and-Tell Blog Hooks Customers,” Wall Street
Journal, September 10, 2007. “Mr. Spangler largely credits
his blog for his success. Steve Spangler Science
recorded more than $5 million in revenues last year” “liked what [the
Netconcepts LLC founder Stephan Spencer] was saying about showing
people you're the expert in that field by what you write. I found
out how important it was to have more content, like our experiment
library. People started visiting.” Powerful headlines also
pull in a lot of traffic. “These days, the blog gets 15,000 to
20,000 unique visitors each day. Early on, if I got 200 or 300, I
was ecstatic. I attribute 13% of overall sales online to the
blog.” This is a very, very busy website—with a 1,000 different
ways of merchandising Spangler. Part of its effectiveness
obviously stems from the passion with which he flogs his wares; part of
the power lies in the fact that science for kids is a very, very
popular topic. However, for families wishing to find an Internet
curriculum that steeps their kids in science, PCS
in Idaho is a leader, and its products are now bought in several lands
that want to jumpstart their educational systems. (12/12/07)
349. Intelligent
Life
We have essayed at length on how luxury has totally disappeared from
modern life. You can read about this in “The Lost
Art of Luxury.” But London’s Economist would like
to show that the lux life is still around, restaging a magazine called Intelligent
Life to reach hefty pocketbooks and upscale advertisers.
See “The Economist’s Foray into Luxury,” Wall Street Journal,
September 3, 2007. “This week, London-based Economist Group Ltd.
put out the first issue of a quarterly general-interest magazine called
Intelligent Life.” “The magazine appeared once in
2005
and once last year. It has been spruced up to try to cash in on
the growth of luxury-goods advertising.” “The new version is laid
out more like a fashion magazine. The pages are about 20% larger
than before, there are more photographs and more white space.
Previous editions featured articles on how to travel into space and
white-collar boxing. The current edition has 11 pages of
photographs of a French boar hunt and an article examining the problems
raised by inheriting lots of money.” “‘We are lifestyle with
substance,’ editor Edward Carr wrote in an editorial in the current
edition.” “Monocle and Intelligent Life have
entered a crowded market. Well-established magazines such as Time
Warner Inc.’s Wallpaper*, Condé Nast’s GQ
and Vanity Fair are among those that dominate the market for
luxury-goods advertising in the U.K.” (12/5/07)
348. SCE/Ambient
Orb
Here's an even wilder idea: How about making our energy use visible to
everyone? Imagine if your daily consumption were part of your
Facebook page—and broadcast to your friends by RSS feed. That
would trigger what Ambient Devices CEO David Rose calls the sentinel
effect: You'd work harder to conserve so you don't look like a jackass
in front of your peers.
This isn't as far-fetched as it sounds. The design firm DIY Kyoto
(as in Kyoto Protocol) recently began selling a device called the
Wattson, which not only shows your energy usage but can also transmit
the data to a Web site, letting you compare yourself with other Wattson
users worldwide. In a Borg-like way, users can see how much
they've collectively reduced their carbon impact.” See “Clive
Thompson Thinks: Desktop Orb Could Reform Energy Hogs,” Wired,
July 24, 2007. It’s interesting to see if we can modify wasteful
behavirors if people can see, instantly, where they are going
wrong. (11/28/07)
347. Redefining
Colleges and Universities
One of America’s most famous physicists told us 50 years ago that it’s
a simple matter what you do about college. If you are going to be
in the sciences, go to a large university, because only there will you
find the physical plant to support your investigations.
Otherwise, go to a small liberal arts university where you will get an
infinitely better education than you will receive at one of the big
monstrosities. True enough. But time and circumstance has
complicated matters. In a global age with all its digital
connections, the function of a university and of a college has changed
the world over. So you have to examine each school on a
case-by-case basis to see if it has adjusted to the future or if it is
still riding a dead horse. So this note is only part of an
ongoing discussion we will have about the future of higher education.
For starters, we refer you to “Fight Song at Ozarks: Work Hard and
Avoid Debt,” New York Times,
July 25, 2007, p. A17. “Like many undergraduates, students at the
College of the Ozarks … work their way through school…. But what
is truly different about Hard Work U—as the college styles itself—is
that all 1,345 students must work 15 hours per week to pay off the
entire cost of tuition—$15,900 per year.” The school
believes that students should not start life with a pile of debt, built
up to pay for college. “College of the Ozarks is run on a lean
staff—it has only four deans—and pays full professors under $70,000 a
year for teaching more hours per semester, 12.” Many students
have extra jobs as well off campus, several at nearby Branson,
Missouri, an entertainment capital.” Perhaps as we are reforming
universities, we can think of adding elements that give students a
touch of the practical and nicely foster the Midwesterrn work ethic.
(11/7/07)
346. Small
Banks Still Can Make It
“A small bank is the vein that carries blood to the heart,” said Edward
Carpenter, chairman of Carpenter & Company, an investment bank that
in 33 years has organized the founding of 708 banks in California and
across the United States” (New York Times,
March 15, 2007, p. C5). Community banks continue to be founded,
since they are still better at serving small businesses that have been
on the increase. There is demand for new banks since mergers and
the like roughly halved the number of banks nationally in the last
quarter of the 20th century. (10/31/07)
345.
Haier Calling
“Twenty years ago, the Qingdao Refrigerator Factory was
a
dump, its workers were unpaid, and its products were shoddy.
Today it’s called Haier. The home-appliance giant is China’s
best-known global company….” See “Raising Haier,” Harvard
Business Review, February 2007, pp. 141-146. In this article
Zhang Ruimin tells how he put it all together. “When you start a
business, your employees are willing to follow you, if you set a good
example and bear more hardships than they do.” “Later, it’s
conviction that appeals to people.” At the start Ruimin did a few
fundamental things—getting loans so employees could get paid, buying a
bus so that it was not so hard for them to get to the
factory. Then he instilled discipline built around clear
rules. From the article it would appear that, on the one hand, he
is autocratic, expecting fast, decisive action on his demands, but that
he fosters quite a bit of tactical innovation on the part of his
project teams, as long as it all adds up to the results he wants from
them. A signal event was his decision to build Haier Industrial
Park in 1991—for which he was short of funds, but he brazened it
through. As it turns out, the country was headed towards
heated expansion, and the building of this vastly expanded capacity had
a great deal to do with turning Haier into a very larger company.This
interesting essay does not reveal as well the kinds of tactics that
have allowed Haier to go global, which one would have to glean from
other articles. For instance, in the U.S., it has made quite a
mark in very small refrigerators a segment not well served by GE and
the other main producers. This end run is similar to how Japanese
power tool manufacturers gained a foothold in America: they went to a
high end segment that Black and Decker, etc. served poorly. (10/24/07)
344
Bringing Back Marks and Sparks
Marks and Spencer, the department store everybody went to in Great
Britain, grew fat and troubled as it entered the 21st century, having
achieved a profit of 1 billion pounds in 1998. Oh, how the mighty
can fall! It had gotten into too many things and too many places
and, by 2004, was carrying unconscionable inventory. Stuart Rose,
who had come out of Marks, and then went on to head other retail
companies, came back to ward off an unfriendly takeover, slash out
excess lines and inventory, wring out 260 million pounds of costs, and
refit rather tired stores. Thereafter, sensible controls, an
energetic team, and a clear merchandising policy has brought the
company in sight of its former profit levels. Rose gives a good
account of this in “Back in Fashion: How We’re Reviving a British
Icon,” Harvard Business Review, May
2007, pp. 51-58. These first person accounts are amongst the best
articles now appearing in HBR, which tends to have too much copy from
professors and consultants, people who have now largely fallen behind
the business curve. Thoughtful articles from turnaround
presidents and bootstrap entrepreneurs are relevant in the very
uncharted territory of the 21st century. Alumni with operations
experience on the outside, such as Rose, make good CEOs in a
pinch. Sort of like bringing in Winston Churchill for the Battle
of Britain. There are a few surprises with Rose, such as the
hiring of Mary Gober, to do “Billy-Graham-type training” starting in
July 2005, with the entire store workforce of 56,000 attending
motivational sessions over a nine month period. This reminds us
of a clever fellow, a one-time Ford dealer in Cuba, who did the same
thing at Litton Industries: he brought in a financial theory consultant
from the East, not so much for the theory, but to get people “to lift
up their eyes.” When you’re turning around a company, you have to
make sure people are not staring down at the ground. Marks,
incidentally, has a lousy website, so it still has a ways to go.
(10/24/07)
343. Grand
Alliances
More than a decade ago, Peter Drucker said the compelling
organizational trend of our era is alliances and partnerships, not the
mergers, spinoffs, and other investment banking maneuvers that make the
news. Occasionally, however, the strategically important becomes
more transparent. Alliances have become inordinately important
because no one company is powerful enough to dominate its market space
globally and to keep up with all the technological strands that are
changing its business. EDS, under Michael Jordan, has grasped
this point with a vengeance. EDS was virtually the inventor of
bigtime outsourcing, and once it owned the field. No
longer. IBM, for instance, dwarfs it. What it has done is
link itself to a whole nest of partners in order to become collectively
more of a force with the world’s largest corporations. See the Wall
Street Journal,
July 24, 2007, pp. B1 and B3. As well, EDS has had to compete
with cheap offshore providers, particularly in India. “But what
makes this alliance unusual is that the partners actually work together
under one roof, and operate as one team pitching a client on a contract
and carrying out the work.” “When EDS unveiled the consortium in
October 2004, it had six partners: Sun, Microsoft, Dell, EMC, Xerox
Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. Oracle and SAP AG joined later.
Today about 250 engineers from partner companies are dedicated to EDS,
which houses them in offices at its main Plano campus and at a facility
in Auburn Hills, Mich.” “In 2006, deals involving the alliance
counted for 40% of EDS’s $26.5 billion in contract signings.” In
2007, as of June, they add up to about 50%. (10/17/07)
342. Phillips
Reborn
Lumbering Phillips of the Netherlands looks like it is making a smart
strategic shift. It is exiting several markets, such as segments
of consumer electronics and computer chips, where it was getting
whipped, and tackling at least one growth area where it might make a
mark. In specific it is getting into healthcare with services for
the aging. See “Fleeing Chips and TVs, Philips Makes Big Bet On
Aging Consumers,” Wall Street Journal,
July 11, 2007, p. A1. “Philips paid $750 million last year to buy
Massachusetts-based Lifeline, an acquisition that represented a turning
point for the company.” The service permits the elderly, for $40
a month, to call easily into a call center that can respond to anxious
health questions and the like. “Philips is joining a parade of
industrial giants making big bets on a growing elderly population and
rising incidence of chronic diseases. General
Electric Co. and Siemens
AG, which both manufacture large-scale medical equipment, are
restructuring to make big pushes into health care.” “Philips
projects its nascent consumer-health division—which so far also sells
baby-care equipment, such as home infant monitors—will bring in sales
of €750 million to €1 billion, or $1.03 billion to $1.37 billion, by
the end of next year” This builds on the strong position Phillips
occupies in medical equipment, an area of robust growth for it.
(10/17/07)
341. Linear
Technology Corporation
Linear Technology can charge a lot for its analog chips and does.
“Linear makes a 39% profit on its $1.1 billion in sales in calendar
2006—more than five times the average for U.S. industrial companies,”
and way ahead of Microsoft and Google, which hover in the
mid-twenties. Others are beginning to horn into the analog space,
and both Richtek of Taiwan and Freescale of Austin, Texas are targeting
the power management area where Linear has focused. But Linear
has 17,000 customers, none accounting for more than 3% of its sales, so
it is not easy to pluck away its business. Linear also is
religious about keeping its costs down, buying used testing equipment
and doing lots of other pennypinching. See the Wall Street
Journal, July 10, 2007, pp.A1 and A10.
Key
to the Company’s success is that Swanson was able to bring with him
chaps that he had worked with before. He put in considerable time
at Fairchild and at National Semiconductor, so he knew the industry
inside out and smartly picked a huge niche where, in effect, he erected
two barriers to entry—he was in a niche part of the business that was
vital but unappealing, and he was not dependent on any one large
customer. (10/10/07)
340. Red
Wine Medicine
Several of us our drinking red wine, cheered by the thought that it may
bolster our health. Sirtris, a Cambridge biotech
spun out of some research at Harvard, is busy proving our theory
well-founded. “Imagine a pill, derived from a compound found in
something as benign as red wine, that treated the most feared and
debilitating diseases of aging: illnesses like diabetes,
neurodegenerative conditions like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, and many
forms of cancer. Imagine, furthermore, that this pill had no
injurious side effects. Imagine, finally, that the pill’s only
side effect conferred what human beings have always wanted: an increase
in life span. That’s what Sirtris wants to create.”
“Sirtris was founded in the spring of 2004
by Dr. Westphal to commercialize the research of David Sinclair, a
professor of pathology at Harvard Medical School and the director of
the Glenn Laboratories for the Biological Mechanisms of Aging.
Mr. Sinclair, who at the relatively youthful age of 37 is already
renowned for his investigations into how we grow old, discovered in
2003 that a molecular compound called resveratrol, found in red wine
and other plant products, extends the life span of mice by as much as
24 percent and the life span of other animals, such as flies and fish,
by as much as 59 percent.”
“Mr. Sinclair believes that resveratrol
works by activating a gene called SIRT-1, which many biologists think
plays a fundamental, if still obscure, role in regulating life span in
mammals. Scientists have shown that increasing the activity of
SIRT-1 in animals slows down aging and postpones or eliminates diseases
of old age.”
“The
company has one compound, called SRT501, an improved formulation of
resveratrol that is in early clinical trials for the treatment of
diabetes. Later this year, Dr. Westphal says, the company will
also begin clinical trials with SRT501 to treat Melas syndrome, a
disorder of the cell’s mitochondria, in which sufferers age with
unnatural haste.” See the New York Times, Business
section, July 8, 2007. (10/10/07)
339. Phillips
Reborn
Lumbering Phillips of the Netherlands looks like it is making a smart
strategic shift. It is exiting several markets, such as segments
of consumer electronics and computer chips, where it was getting
whipped, and tackling at least one growth area where it might make a
mark. Specifically, it is getting into healthcare, with services
for the aging. See “Fleeing Chips and TVs, Philips Makes Big Bet
On Aging Consumers,” Wall Street Journal, July 11, 2007, p.
A1. “Philips paid $750 million last year to buy
Massachusetts-based Lifeline, an acquisition that represented a turning
point for the company.” The service permits the elderly, for $40
a month, to call easily into a call center that can respond to anxious
health questions and the like. “Philips is joining a parade of
industrial giants making big bets on a growing elderly population and
rising incidence of chronic diseases. General Electric Co. and Siemens
AG, which both manufacture large-scale medical equipment, are
restructuring to make big pushes into health care.” “Philips
projects its nascent consumer-health division—which so far also sells
baby-care equipment, such as home infant monitors—will bring in sales
of €750 million to €1 billion, or $1.03 billion to $1.37 billion, by
the end of next year.” This builds on the strong position
Phillips occupies in medical equipment, an area of robust growth for
it. (10/3/07)
338. Red
Wine Medicine
Several of us our drinking red wine, cheered by the thought that it may
bolster our health. Sirtris, a Cambridge biotech
spun out of some research at Harvard, is busy proving our theory
well-founded. “Imagine a pill, derived from a compound found in
something as benign as red wine, that treated the most feared and
debilitating diseases of aging: illnesses like diabetes,
neurodegenerative conditions like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, and many
forms of cancer. Imagine, furthermore, that this pill had no
injurious side effects. Imagine, finally, that the pill’s only
side effect conferred what human beings have always wanted: an increase
in life span. That’s what Sirtris wants to create.”
“Sirtris was founded in the spring of 2004
by Dr. Westphal to commercialize the research of David Sinclair, a
professor of pathology at Harvard Medical School and the director of
the Glenn Laboratories for the Biological Mechanisms of Aging.
Mr. Sinclair, who at the relatively youthful age of 37 is already
renowned for his investigations into how we grow old, discovered in
2003 that a molecular compound called resveratrol, found in red wine
and other plant products, extends the life span of mice by as much as
24 percent and the life span of other animals, such as flies and fish,
by as much as 59 percent.”
“Mr. Sinclair believes that resveratrol
works by activating a gene called SIRT-1, which many biologists think
plays a fundamental, if still obscure, role in regulating life span in
mammals. Scientists have shown that increasing the activity of
SIRT-1 in animals slows down aging and postpones or eliminates diseases
of old age.”
“The
company has one compound, called SRT501, an improved formulation of
resveratrol that is in early clinical trials for the treatment of
diabetes. Later this year, Dr. Westphal says, the company will
also begin clinical trials with SRT501 to treat Melas syndrome, a
disorder of the cell’s mitochondria, in which sufferers age with
unnatural haste” (New York Times, Business, July 8, 2007).
(9/19/07)
337. Service
Research and Innovation Initiative
IBM, Oracle, and other large technology companies such as Accenture,
Cisco, Computer Sciences, EMC, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, and Xerox
are looking for ways to plug more technology into the
service sector (New York Times, March 18, 2007, p.
C5). Many universities are adding service science courses
and the National Science Foundation is now financing a few service
research projects. However, even with a symposium coming up in
May, the organization looks a bit sleepy. (9/12/07)
336. Farm Tourism
We have commented on some of the farm tourist initiatives in North
Carolina in “Amazing.”
But farmers and others around the nation are doing all sorts of things
to bring paying customers out to the farm. As their revenues tail
off from standard crops, dairy and beef cows, etc., the farmers are
inventing a host of tricks to find some revenues. Farm tourism is
one. Specialty or boutique farming is another with organic initiatives,
hormone free milk, and heritage breeds. As well, there are new
museums and sundry other exhibitions to draw urbanites out into
farmland—all promoted by the the Association for Living
History, Farm and Agricultural Museums. Some of this is
summed up in “10 Great Places to Dig Up Old Dirt on Farming,” USA
Today, March 23, 2007, p. 3D. (9/5/07)
335. The Milkman
Cometh
“Returning to your doorstep: the milkman” (Wall Street Journal,
May 15, 2007, p. B4). “Crescent Edge Dairy Inc. in Sharon, Mass.,
a small third-generation family dairy … still processes and delivers
its own brand of hormone-free milk in old-fashioned glass bottles,
placing them in white steel boxes outside customers’
homes.” “The milkman was still a familiar sight as recently
as the 1960s when home delivery accounted for 30% of all milk
sales….” “In addition to milk, Hudson Milk also delivers items
like cream, organic eggs, yogurt and Poland Spring water for a flat
delivery fee of $2—which has boosted his average order to $25.”
Online orders at Crescent have been the key to higher sales per
customer, with Internet orders 20% higher than other purchases.
Crescent is also trying to build its ice cream business where margins
are higher and volume is now up to $1 million a year. (9/5/07)
334. The
Mystery of Belk’s
Belk, headquartered in
Charlotte, North Carolina, is the large privately held private
department store in the United States. We do not understand it
very well, especially as we prowl through its aisles. We do not
recommend that you go there, but it is a survivor. Obviously it
was a whole lot more fun in 1888 when it was founded. First
called “New York Racket,” a fantastic name, it then became Belk
Brothers. Apparently its profits and sales keep growing, as “Belk
Defies Odds” (Raleigh News and Observer, March 24, 2007, pp. D1
and D5).
Today
there are fewer than 10 chains, mostly national. “The Charlotte
chain … has 309 stores in 17 states.” It is now approaching $3
billion in sales. It only goes into small neighborhood shopping
centers where it is the only store. It targets midsize towns with
populations of 100,000 or under. It has brought a fair number of
stores, such as Profitt’s, McRae’s, and Parisians’s. (8/8/07)
333. Water Works
Personalized Bottle
Water absolutely proves the power of packaging. Mark Sikes
was a stick-on label merchant until he got the idea of setting up a
bottler in Little Rock, where he would stick on the buyer’s label.
Schools, funeral homes, and hotels soon jumped on the bandwagon.
By 2006 he got the revenues up to $350,000. He has since
gotten advice on how to sell over the web, how to franchise, and how to
get more strategic. Apparently he can haul in $52.00 a case when
he is selling to wedding planners, and he’s been told to close in on
this market slice. (7/18/06)
332. New York
City’s Useful Broker
The very bright commentator on New York politics, Ken Auletta, calls
Howard Rubenstein “The Fixer” in the New Yorker, Feburary 12,
2007, pp. 46-57. Our scattered contacts with Rubenstein would
find this to be a bit glib: he is a quiet good counselor and doer of
sensible things, knowing how to operate under the radar screen.
He is better called a catalyst that makes useful things happen between
people who don’t know each other or whose egos keep them from
successfully talking to one another. Even ‘consiglieri’ would
have been more apt. He clients run the gamut—Steinbrenner
Murdoch, etc.—but his most important base of contacts we think has been
a slew of the moguls in the real estate industry. These
relationships have led to everybody else, particularly the politicians
up and down the state. Strange, we think, that Wal-Mart does not
seem to be a client: it has stumbled in New York City. (7/18/06)
331. IBM in India
“Last June IBM held its annual investors’ day on the grounds of the
Bangalore Palace, a fake Windsor Castle in India’s equivalent of
Silicon Valley” (“Hungry tiger, Dancing Elephant,” Economist,
April 7, 2007, pp. 67-69). “With 53,000 employees, India is now
at the core of IBM’s strategy,” its employee workforce there second
only to America, and revenue growing 40 to 50% a year. CEO
Palmisano has announced that IBM will invest $6 billion in India over
the next 3 years. Incidentally, John Patterson, IBM’s chief
procurement officer, has moved to Shenzen, as IBM puts functions in the
countries that can best serve it globally. The Company meanwhile
has been growing services and software to kickstart its revenues and
has hopes of both increased growth and profitability by achieving
synergies between hardware (IBM’s traditional business but a shrinking
percentage of the pie) and the other two. In 2006 Hewlett
Packard’s revenues pulled just past IBM ($91.7 billion vs. $91.4
billion). (7/11/07)
330. Post-Industrial
Smarts
For developed countries, we have theorized, the only hope in a global
economy where somebody in Asia can crank out any product at half the
cost is “vive la difference.” Make one of a kinds that don’t make
for easy knock-offs. The product must not only be physically
differentiated: the whole experience associated with it must be a cut
above things that come out of the mass market economy.
All this involves a different culture and a
different set of skills quite apart from the attitudes and habits
learned in the modern nation state. Hither and thither, there are
solitary examples. “The Fondation de Coubertin spreads over an
estate covering 160 acres in Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse, 20
miles southwest of Paris. Virtually hidden in the estate's
secluded woods behind the sculpture-studded gardens and 300-year-old
chateau are massive workshops and an art foundry. Here, 150-odd
of Europe's finest artisans, including 30 young fellows on full
scholarship, are working in metal, stone and wood, or casting sculpture
in bronze and steel for world-class artists living and dead, including
the Spanish architect and sculptor Santiago Calatrava, the Hungarian
sculptor Marta Pan, and the late Auguste Rodin” (Wall Street Journal,
March 21, 2007, p. D11).
“Besides its setting on the grounds of a
magnificent estate, what distinguishes the foundation from just a bunch
of workshops is the fellowship program for 30 young artisans, mostly
French but including other Europeans and the occasional American.
They have previously apprenticed in one or another of these
crafts and most of them are likely to be admitted soon to the Compagnon
du Devoir, the guild that emerged in the 11th century when the great
cathedrals of Europe were under construction.” “During their year
at Coubertin, they work on the foundation's commissions and their own
chef d’oeuvre, a sort-of doctoral dissertation that they must submit
for admission to the guild. But they also get courses in English,
psychology, computer-assisted design, math, accounting and
salesmanship, as well as regular lectures from visiting scholars and
artists covering a range of subjects, from Guy de Maupassant to the
life of bees. Nowhere else in the world can such craftsmen find a
similar experience.”
“Mr.
de Navacelle, a Coubertin descendant and retired French businessman,
has established Saint-Jacques Artisans Workshops Inc. in the U.S. as a
subsidiary of the foundation.” See http://www.coubertin.fr.
(7/4/07)
329. Automatic
Search Engines
As we suggested in “In
Search of Searchlights,” search engines on the web are still pretty
crude, missing much of what is there and spitting out hundreds of
entries that are not relevant to what the searcher is trying to
discover. Efforts aplenty continue to try to devise a better
mousetrap. One “Metaweb Technologies, is led by Danny Hillis,
whose background includes a stint at Walt Disney Imagineering and who
has long championed the idea of intelligent machines.” It seeks
to “create a vast public database intended to be read by computers
rather than people, paving the way for a more automated Internet in
which machines will routinely share information” (New York Times,
March 9, 2007). “On the Web, there are few rules governing how
information should be organized. But in the Metaweb database, to
be named Freebase, information will be structured to make it possible
for software programs to discern relationships and even meaning.”
“It’s like a system for building the synapses for the global brain,”
said Tim O’Reilly, chief executive of O’Reilly Media, a technology
publishing firm based in Sebastopol, Calif. Hillis was a founder
of Thinking Machines, a pioneering firm in the field of massively
parallel computers. He’s also been involved with Applied Mind.
P.S: The name Freebase is very unfortunate since it also refers
to the world of illicit drugs. (6/13/07)
328. Free
Association
The great value maker for forward-looking companies in our age is not
merger and acquisitions, but strategic alliances. Huge volatility
in markets across the world coupled with rapid technology shocks that
change the business playing field daily have devalued traditional
organizations—and the outdated acquisitions they make. William
Dunk Partners, Inc. expands on this trend in “Free
Association.” (5/2/07)
327. All
Volunteer Army of Workers
“Will Volunteers Replace Paid Employees As Companies Bank on Free
Contributions?” (WSJ, Feb 17-18, 2007, p. A5 cited from Time).
Everything, from Wikipedia to Linux innovation, depends on unpaid
volunteers to create their product. “One of the leading prophets
of the gift economy is Youchai Benkler, a Yale University law professor
whose 2006 book The Wealth of Networks can be read for free
online (www.benkler.org).” Many doubt
that volunteerism for profit-making enterprise will work.
Time and WSJ barely scratch
the surface in coming to terms with the innovative ways companies are
putting volunteers to work. It’s not just that the labor is free,
but the volunteers often are doing jobs that cannot be performed by
hired hands. Viral marketing firms often depends on a corps of
advocates to spread the word about a product, an idea we touched on in “Authentic
Conversations.” Banks get you to do all the works at their
automatic teller machines; a host of organizations want you to manage
your purchase transactions, in all respects, on the Internet.
Healthcare organizations of various sorts are no longer treating their
patients as dumb terminals, but are helping them make informed
decisions about their own health. Many companies provide their
‘volunteers’ with minor gifts or inducements, but many free workers
enjoy the tasks and would work without compensation.
Wikipedia
is, of course, an encyclopedia built on volunteers. Google is
trading free services such as email and more with consumers who are its
unwitting volunteers, since they enrich the database on which its
future revenues are being built. (4/25/07)
326. -new- Dockers
Saves Levi Strauss
“When the beleaguered jeans company reported fiscal 2006 earnings … the
U.S. Dockers unit was a standout, posting an annual sales increase for
the first time since 1998.” Three years ago, Levi had tried to
sell the division. John Goodman, formerly of Gap, and K
Mart, who turned around Banana Republic, was brought in to head things
up. Goodman turned a khaki company into a brand, adding on
shirts, sweaters, blazers, and more fashionable women’s clothing.
It also started bringing out men’a apparel in four categories—work,
weekend wear, formal wear, and golf. “Dockers launched its most
expensive pants to date, $150 dress pants made with super-fine wool
that is machine-washable.” Khaki, of course, is hot, and higher
end brands may threaten Dockers resurgence, just as premium jeans ate
into Levi’s market. Interestingly, offbeat operations are the
salvation of several clothing companies. For instance, Hilfiger’s
operations in Europe, once troubled, are now a key profit center of the
company. (4/25/07)
325. Hilfiger
Makeover in Europe
Tommy Hilfiger, a fashion brand in the United States that has always
been at the low end of the high end, has had to have a facelift in
Europe. Hilfiger, like other clothiers, has discovered that U.S.
market growth has peaked out and that it has to go abroad. But it
has discovered that Europe has different merchandising rules, as
recounted in the Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2007, pp. A1
& A17. “The upscale loft-like space (in Dusseldorf), one of
34 Hilfiger Denim stores in Europe, is a new concept catering
specifically to European tastes.” Higher quality shirts and jeans
bear price tags many times higher than those in the States. “The
U.S. clothing market has grown less than 5% annually in recent
years.” Department stores now allot 1/3 of their space to private
brands or lines with which they have an exclusive. Hilfiger in
the United States is in turnaround mode, having peaked at $1.9 billion
in 1000, and it now relies on its European success to stabilize the
company. “Margins in Europe can be 50% to 100% higher than in
U.S. department stores….” Dutch born Fred Gehring, now CEO of
Hilfiger, built Hilfiger Europe steadily from its base in Amsterdam.
Besides signing up the big department stores, he also did
business with the boutiques, 4500 of them in 15 countries. He set
up many showrooms with 25 lines of merchandise for retailers to view,
creating high operating expenses, which were vital, nonetheless, in his
push to overtake European brands. He now has a separate European
design staff in Amsterdam of 37 people. They design for an older
demographic in Europe, not the youth crowd Hilfiger aims at in the U.S.
(4/11/07)
324. Cisco:
DIY Innovation
Having done a raft of acquisitions, Cisco is now trying to grow new
products and services at home. See “Cisco’s Homegrown
Experiment,” Wall Street Journal, January 23, 2007, p.
A14. “The Telepresence high-end video-conferencing system is a
test of Cisco’s new plan to juice growth: Create new products,
especially those outside its core networking gear, from scratch, on its
own.” “The company’s high double-digit growth rate has slowed to
low double and single digits. To recapture some of its former glory,
Cisco is trying to jump-start new growth by making completely new
products outside of networking gear on its own.” “The unit was
launched by Charlie Giancarlo, Cisco’s chief development officer, who
is often mentioned as an heir apparent to Mr. Chambers. Mr.
Giancarlo says he wanted to set up a structure to house new
nonnetworking products that were bubbling up within the company.”
(4/4/07)
323. Keeping
the Tarnish off Tiffany
“In the late 1990s, Tiffany & Co’s silver charm bracelet was a
must-have fashion accessory. Teens jammed Tiffany’s hushed stores
clamoring for the $110 silver bauble. Sales skyrocketed, investors
cheered.” But Tiffany worried, afraid that the teen crush would
ruin its standing with older, very affluent customers. It raised
the price of the bracelet, hoping to shed its raucous following.
See “To Refurbish Its Image, Tiffany Risks Profits,” Wall
Street Journal, January 10, 2007, pp. A1 and A15. And it
introduced more upscale luxury merchandise. The move has been a
mixed success: it is selling more upper-end merchandise, but it has not
recovered the revenues and profits of yesterday. The truth,
moreover, though not known to many, is that Tiffany for decades has
depended on middlebrow customers buying midprice merchandise, and it
really cannot afford to lose the great middle. The company
continues to aggressively expand into smaller cities, and we wonder if
that will cheapen the brand. The bracelet eventually worked its
way up over $200, although we believe we saw one at $169 on a recent
visit. Though the stock is up, we sense that the company is still
in an uncertain period. (3/14/07)
322. Over Hill and Dell
You have heard
that Dell is faltering, losing market share to H-P, and plummeting in
other ways. Don’t bet on its decline. Michael Dell has
demonstrated founder smarts for a long time, and we can imagine he will
stage a comeback. He is demonstrating his usual go-it-alone
smarts in his environmental approach. He is going to sell trees
online to put green in the world. See Financial Times,
January 10, 2007, p. 17. Dell said “Dell was the most
energy-efficient company in the industry and the global leader in
product recycling.” “Dell’s carbon-neutral initiative is a
partnership with the Conservation Fund and Carbonfund.org non-profit
organizations, who will plant the trees in sustainably managed
forests.” He is asking consumers to donate $2 for every notebook
computer they buy and $6 for every desktop. Dell will pick up the
administrative costs of the Plant a Tree Program. Recently, Dell
has come back to run the company, which is not doing as well as it
might in consumer markets. (3/7/07)
Update: Dell Changes His
Bench. Michael Dell once before brought in a team to put
some pep into his company, capturing, for instance, nimble Morton
Topfer who came out of Motorola. Now he’s made Don Carty,
one-time ceo at American Airlines, his chief financial officer.
He has brought in others from IBM, Motorola, etc, and has a raft
of headhunters working on his top team.
“Overall,
Dell is whittling its executive team down to just 12 members from more
than 20. The company also is abolishing its practice of splitting
high-level jobs by assigning two executives to head up a business unit.
The structure helped create a bureaucratic organization in which
no one was responsible for the whole business” (Wall Street Journal,
March 1, 2007, p. B1). “Many of the executives Mr. Dell has
brought in have been involved in corporate turnarounds before.
Mr. Cannon, for example, is credited with rejuvenating hard-drive
storage maker Maxtor Corp. (which is now owned by
Seagate Technology) and helping to boost Solectron’s growth.”
(5/9/07)
321. Playland
Playland,
in Rye, New York, is the nation’s only publicly owned amusement park.
It was formed to provide a wholesome recreation spot for
Westchester residents who were concerned about the unsavory elements
that had been attracted to Rye beaches. Westchester County is
struggling to keep it afloat and has been doing a facelift to see if it
can be re-floated. See “Finding Funds to Keep the Play in
Playland,” New York Times, December 17, 2006, p. NJ7. It
attracts a million visitors a year, has been part of several Hollywood
films, and once provided the practice rink for the New York Rangers.
It’s also a National Historic Landmark. The county is
refurbishing the bath houses, buying up privately owned rides,
redesigning the Kiddyland area, and taking steps to increase customer
flow. To savor its delights, take a look at “A
Fun Afternoon at Rye Playland.” In business since 1928,
Playland has a lively website with carousel
music to peddle its wares. (3/7/07)
320. The Easy Button
About two years ago, Staples, one of the big three office-supply chains
along with Office Max and Office Depot, started putting out TV
commercials showing people accomplishing tough, boring tasks with an
‘easy’ button. The idea was to convey that Staples is an easy,
relaxed, fast shopping experience. The ads caught on so much that
now Staples now offers Easy Buttons on its shelves for $4.99. See
“Ad Play,” New York Times Sunday Magazine, December 17, 2006,
p. 40.
What’s so interesting about this campaign
for us is that nothing could be farther from the truth. We’ve
shopped at Staples, every month or so, and it’s a horror show as far as
we can tell. Stuff is wretchedly hard to find and check out takes
forever. Heaven help you if you want to use one of its services,
say copying. One of the things that’s happened to advertising is
that it tries to take up a company’s worst flaw and claim that the flaw
does not exist: shopping is tres difficile at Staples, so the
trick is to call it easy. Years ago, a senior IBM official, who
had turned down the offer of a PC in his office to everybody’s
distress, told us that there was nothing friendly about ‘user-friendly’
computers. In fact, computers are a mass of confusion that
regularly go into meltdown. And the list continues.
But
as well, advertising adopts themes that are on the wish lists of modern
Americans, making promises on which the admen cannot deliver. In
modern times, we want ‘easy,” even though modern life has become
complex and unwieldly. We want ‘energy saving,’ though most
everybody we do and use is energy-gobbling. Advertising,
then, frequently no longer talks about the product but, instead, about
all the wishes modern civilization cannot address and frequently
frustrates. (1/24/07)
319. Disarray
in U.S. Financial Markets
You
will in “It’s Not
Carly’s Fault” and in several other places on the Global Province
commentary about the utter, complete, and devastating failure of
Sarbanes-Oxley, the handiwork of two legislators on the way out.
It, along with missteps by the Bush Administration, have sent our
financial marketplace into retreat—our commercial Iraq. Clipped
comments in the Financial Times, November 17, 2006, p. 14 sum
it up nicely. “The compliance revolution has eaten its
own.” The SEC’s Annual Report is self-congratulatory on all it
has done to clean up the markets. “It is now clear that Europe
see financial market regulation as a source of competitive
advantage.” The UK has proposed a law “allowing the Financial
Service Authority to ring-fence the London Stock Exchange … against
‘disproportionate regulation’—code for American laws in general and the
Sarbanes-Oxley Act in particular.” Other European initiatives are afoot
to counter U.S. over-regulation. Any of us who advise public
companies know that Sarbanes has become a license to steal for both
accountants and lawyers who have laid on wonderful fees to help
companies through all the trash imposed by Sarbanes and the SEC.
Smart companies are migrating overseas for listings and to raise
their money, raising the power of London as a financial center and
taking air out of New York’s balloon. (1/17/07)
Update: At Home in London
A number of journalists have written us saying that Sarbanes-Oxley
ain’t that bad. The protests against it, they think, are just the
usual huffings and puffings of Wall Street types and knee-jerk chief
executives who always want less regulation. When it’s all said
and done, they say the new regs are not that onerous. The facile
one-page financial journalist for the New Yorker, James
Surowiecki, doesn’t think we are missing out on very many IPOs and that
anyone of note still also looks to the U.S. for capital.
We’re all for tight, sensible regulation,
but let us assure these scribblers that they are simply dead
wrong. Our work has made us intimately aware of the egregious
extra costs accountants and lawyers now impose on companies because of
SOX. We converse with some regularity with companies avoiding
listings in the U.S.—most recently a fine German company. We know
of worthwhile executives who no longer want to serve as company
directors, and of companies who are contemplating going private.
All because of SOX and the regulatory atmosphere it has
engendered.
Clara
Furse, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, is the latest
celebrant of the vulnerability of U.S. financial markets. She’s
author of “Taking AIM at Small Caps,” Wall Street Journal,
January 30, 2007, p. A17. “In the last 12 months, the U.S.
capital markets have started to take a serious interest in AIM, the
London Stock Exchange’s market for smaller, growing companies.”
“If AIM were an exchange in its own right, it would rank sixth in
the world by money raised last year.” “The pursuit of
high-quality regulation without the imposition of high-quantity
regulation appears to be gaining currency in the U.S.” There is a
lot of talk about more deft regulation, but right now it’s both
cumbersome and ineffective. (4/18/07)
318. Internet Realtors
Internet
realtors threaten to displace traditional, expensive, slow,
brick-and-mortar realtors in the years ahead. The Financial
Times, November 25-26, House and Home, p.1 takes a look at this
revolution in “A Bitter Battle for Sales Territory: With growing
numbers of us turning to the internet to buy and sell our homes, are
the days of the traditional estate agency numbered?” It’s not
hard to see why Glenn Kelman of Redfin.com “backed by Microsoft
pioneer Paul Allen, is seen as a threat” to the agent down the
street. “‘We think people can save thousands of pounds,’ says
Helen Probert, the 28-year-old founder of Cutthemiddleman.co.uk, one of
about 100 UK-based self-sell websites.” New kinds of sites
aggregate ads selling homes provide satellite imagery of towns and
houses, give additional details on properties. Redfin flat fees
come in at about $2,000 versus the egregious 6% in the United States,
and 2% in the UK. (1/10/07)
317. Social
Entrepreneurs
Ashoka, founded and run by an
ex-McKinsey type, is one of many organizations set up to lend aid and
comfort to social entrepreneurs. In theory, anyway, social
entrepreneurs take on the deep problems of society but put freebootin’
ideas and techniques and charisma to work to cut down big nagging
roadblocks to poor people’s progress. See, particularly,
“The Rise of the Social Entrepreneur.” While it is clear that
intermediaries can bring more capital into social causes, the jury is
still out whether they help or hinder the entrepreneur-led causes they
are underwriting. “Meanwhile, Ashoka hopes that its relationship
with UBS will flourish, and that prizes will soon be awarded across
Latin America and Asia. But as well as highlighting the growing
role of social entrepreneurs, this experiment also points to another
new trend: a more active role for intermediaries in the emerging
philanthropic capital market.”
We
still have a huge task understanding how money is successfully
distributed into philanthropy, since the intermediaries act much like
governments, adding layers and layers of bureacracy to the development
process. The much-enlarged microfinance movement is now dealing
with donors who have complex motivations and who devise complex schemes
to put a $100 loan into the hands of a peasant. We will have much
more to say about microfinance later. (12/27/06)
316. Bad Apple
Apple
Computer has long been the darling of mildly anti-system
affluents. But their affection is probably not warranted.
Bad old Microsoft is probably doing more for the world (Gates
Foundation is very active in global health) than the inventive but
perhaps more provincial Apple chieftains. Jobs, for instance, is
psychopathically tight-lipped and covert, an odd posture for the pres
of a company that is suppose to be mellow, pretty, laid back, and,
above all, open. He does not hand out written instructions with
his computers, and the online helps are no help at all. Neither
the screens nor the operating paths are intuitive. The I-Pod,
like the computers, is horribly overpriced, subject to breakage, hard
to use, and difficult to keep charged. Users say the graphics are
wonderful, but so what. It is little wonder to us that Holman
Jenkins wound up calling Jobs “A Typical Backdating Miscreant,” Wall
Street Journal, October 11, 2006. Of course, Holman, an
apologist for breaking the law, does sort of pan all the furor over
backdating options, clearly not thinking the practice is a big
deal. Kindly Steve Jobs has gone after a host of bloggers who
dare to tell secrets that they have learned about life inside Apple
with endless law suits. See BBC News.
(12/13/06)
315. Emap
“Ten
years ago, says Emap Group Chief Executive Tom Moloney, no prestige
media company wanted to touch either data directories or trade shows,
both of which were considered the ‘rough end of the business.’
But since then the four big publishers—Thomson, Wolters Kluwer,
VNU and Reed Elsevier—have transformed their businesses from
traditional media such as trade papers into commercial data vending,
mostly with electronic distribution.” (See “The Rough End of the
Business,” Forbes, June 19, 2006, pp.134-35.) “Emap is
the largest trade show organizer in Britain.” It has bought seven
trade shows and started up another three. Its share of UK
magazine sales at newsstands is 19%, with Time Warner coming in at
21%. “Emap’s heavy metal music magazine, Kerrang!, is now a radio
station, TV channel, Web site and host of ‘live’ music events.”
As such its Emap ad salesmen have perfected cross selling and the idea
of selling total platforms for brand building. Its foray into
America—the purchase of Peterson Magazines—nearly broke the company,
but it dumped Peterson in 2001 in a sale to Primedia. In addition
to trade shows, it has been a big buyer of electronic data banks and
radio properties. The data and trade show niches are felt by Emap
to be safe revenue streams, while advertising spending in traditional
channels is flat and is being split up amongst more and more magazines.
(12/6/06)
314. The Green Theme
The pols and the journalists are slowly twigging on to the fact that
business is turning green. They point to the battalion of Fortune
500 companies that have jointed Pew’s initiatives on global
warming. Or they spy Wal-Mart’s goals for greening itself and its
push to stock more organic products.
But it’s all the little things and unheard
of companies that truly convince one that we have turned the
corner. Bazzini Associates in Grand Rapids, Michigan is making a
living from green practices. “The firm, which specializes in
restoring old buildings, uses techniques and tools including green
roofs that are covered with plants, storm water management systems, and
environmentally friendly building systems” (“Making a Profit and a
Difference,” New York Times, October 5, 2006, p. C5). Guy
Bazzini says, “We found that we can build green buildings that utilize
40 percent to 50 percent less energy at the same price as traditional
buildings.” Local First of Grand Rapids “is
just one of 35 similar business networks around the United States and
Canada that have sprung out of the
Business Alliance for Local Living Economies, or Balle, a nonprofit
organization founded in 2001 by two successful small-business owners in
Boston and Philadelphia.” The concept is to foster profitability
but combine it with social and environmental consciousness.
In
Manhattan Andrew Shapiro has made a go of GreenOrder, Inc., a
consulting company that promotes environmentally friendly business
practices (“A Dollars-and-Cents Man with a Green Philosophy,” New
York Times, October 8, 2006, p. BU 24). Much of his work is
on buildings for Silverstein Properties (World Trade Center), Tishman
Speyer, Vornado, and General Electric’s real estate unit.
(11/29/06)
313. Getting Naked
Don
Tapscott, co-author of
The Naked Corporation and a Canadian B-School professor,
believes he’s on to the next big thing for corporations. See the Economist,
October 18, 2006, p, 66. In this age, when business is becoming
ever more virtual, he believes the ticket for companies now is to
become increasingly more transparent to customers, employees,
investors, and other constituencies. Of course, he does not
reckon with Sarbanes-Oxley, the hamfisted attempt of Congress to get
companies to let it all hang out but which instead has had the dual
effect of making public companies more closemouthed and causing private
companies to stay private. Greater transparency he feels is
inevitable, since everybody now demands more. The Economist
feels the big problem is that in an imperfect world that there is
simply a great deal that competitive businesses have to keep private.
We ourselves feel the real challenge is how to orchestrate not
transparency, but interconnection. To win the global race now, a
company needs its employees to be networking with a host of people
outside the corporate walls who have no economic connection to the
company but who have knowledge to share and who can help build
practical theses of how to accomplish this or that business
chore. From our own experience, we can say that the real problem
is to develop a mindset where one’s employee does not think in us vs.
them terms. (11/22/06)
312. Small Is Beautiful
We’re
always debating whether the sentiment “small is beautiful” is actually
true, especially when we contemplate the havoc of many small
enterprises. But it is true in at least one regard.
“Highest Safety Risks Found at Small Worksites of Larger Businesses,
Not at Small Businesses,” according to the Rand Review, Summer
2006, p. 3. “Employees at worksites of fewer than 100 employees were
much safer when a small business owned the plant than when a larger
business did.” Better to be owned by a business of 1 to 20
workers, or a business over a 1,000 workers, if you are at a small
worksite: companies with 20 to 999 workers experience 2.5 to 7 times
the safety problems. This would suggest that the Feds should
lighten up on safety enforcement at very small businesses and at
worksites that have more than 20 workers. In any event, we
suspect that safety correlates with the quality of onsite worker
supervision which, in the case of very small businesses, probably means
that the owner is present. (11/15/06)
311. Jonathan
Schwartz
It makes me want to buy the stock. Most CEOs are afraid of the
Internet, and their websites show it. We cannot say enough bad
things about corporate websites: they’re uninformative, out-of-date,
badly written, poorly and usually over-designed, and on and on.
But Jonathan Schwartz, the guy who’s in charge of the store at Sun
MicroSystems now that the founder is up and out, keeps an interesting
blog, Jonathan’s Blog, where he
tries to lend transparency to both Sun and himself. He has beaten
back his lawyers who are the enemies of communication in most companies:
As a CEO who
blogs, the most frequent question I get is, “doesn't this drive your
lawyers nuts?” And as I’ve said, no. Our legal team
understands, guides, drives—and protects—our business. All
without sneaking into phone booths to change costume. And with
technology, regulation and our products all colliding in the
marketplace (is it legal to scream “SOX!” in a theater filled with
CEO’s?), I sleep better at night knowing they’re actively engaged.
Very quietly,
this week, our General Counsel—the senior most lawyer in all of
Sun—started a blog. It’s here. He,
too, is now the only member of his tribe, the only GC in all the
Fortune 500 to have a blog.
A great company that has stumbled, Sun has
been in retreat. There is no better way to lead a charge back
into the marketplace than to be the CEO who says it all.
The New York Times, July 30, 2006,
p. BU3 wrote about his exceptional bog, noting that he’s the only
Fortune CEO to put his pen to computer. The only way you can get
a wisp of what’s happening with the notoriously, paranoid secretive
Steve Jobs is to read a parody site, “The Secret Life of Steve Jobs.”
Microsoft proudly notes that some 3,000 employees are so are
blogging up a storm, but Gates and Steve Ballmer are not among them.
There
once was a rather fine disc jockey in New York named
Jonathan Schwarz. Could he be at all related to Silicon
Schwartz? (10/18/06)
310. Mis-Guided
Guidance
We have been at pains to tell companies all the self-defeating things
they do to achieve recognition from investors. In “If You Believe
in Yesterday, Your Stock Will Not Act Like Tomorrow,” we lay out
some of the myths that companies believe in and act upon in their
dealings with the stock market. But we did not deal with the
worst thing companies can do to themselves: giving quarterly or yearly
financial guidance to investors is nothing short of suicide.
Sooner or later, you won’t make your numbers and Wall Street will
savage your stock. Sooner or later, the shareholder suit mills
such as Lerach, Coughlin will go after a
chunk of your assets, claiming you deceived investors and traded on
your own behalf. In an attempt to meet the highflying targets you
have set out, you will sell products at low prices and fail to invest
for the long term. The reasons for not giving financial guidance
are so numerous and so obvious that it’s hard to imagine why companies
fall in this trap. But, of course, analysts, like reporters, are
lazy and want their work done for them. Better for them if you
make a fool of yourself by putting out predictions and then they can
put out long scripts on why you may and why you may not make it.
At long last some sober citizens at the
Business Roundtable and the CFA Institute have come out with an
impressive document that examines forecasting. Simple to say, “Breaking
the Short-Term Cycle” instructs companies, “Give It Up.”
Focus on the long term and communicate about the long term. We
have spent considerable energy with our clients here and abroad for
several decades teaching them how to do just that. Basically we
have shown companies how to devise and communicate very long term
goals: everyone is clear that they are goals and that performance may
deviate sharply from the goals from year to year.
We
have constructed an impressive list of
long-termers who have given up quarterly forecasting. One
caveat: we have missed many companies who have also given up this
addiction, and a few have taken up the habit again after becoming
forecast-free. At any rate, an impressive list of enterprises
have given themselves breathing room and greater capacity to manage
their businesses in the right way by fighting off the tyranny of
quarterly forecasts.
Update: Why Bother?
“For the life of me I don’t know why companies give earnings guidance.
Nobody can see the future; yet every quarter it’s the same old
song and dance” (Herb Greenberg, “If Earnings Guidance Lacks Clear
Direction, Why Bother?” Wall Street Journal, February 3-4,
2007, p. B3). The number of companies providing any guidance has
dropped to 66% from 71% a year ago, and those providing only annual
guidance has increased from 23% to 43%. Baruch Lev of NYU, author
of the paper “To Guide or Not to Guide,” still believes guidance is
important in order to control the range of analyst forecasts.
(4/11/07)
Update:
Profitless Prophets
McKinsey confirms what so many of is already know. Earnings
forecasting is a profitless, dangerous game. In “The
Earnings Guidance Fallacy,”
McKinsey asserts “Contrary to what some executives believe, frequent
earnings guidance doesn’t raise market valuations; indeed, it appears
to have no significant relationship with them—regardless of the year,
the industry, or the size of the company in question.” “Read ‘The misguided
practice of earnings guidance’
(March 2006) for more on why companies should disclose their long-range
strategic goals and business fundamentals instead of speculating about
their short-term performance.” (3/12/08)
309. Bain’s
Orit Gadiesh
Hailing from Israel, “Ms. Gadiesh lives mostly in Paris with her
British husband.” Although hardly speaking English when she began
at Harvard Business School, she graduated in top 5% of class.
When Bain was near bankruptcy, Gadiesh, trained as psychologist,
arranged a rapprochement between founders and 1980 employees to ease up
on the firm. She became chairman in July 1993. She says you
should go for 80% of perfection, since you cannot realize 100%, which
probably explains her mediating abilities as well. See the Economist,
October 22, 2005, p. 72. (10/4/06)
308. Innovative
Toys—Japan
Many commentators from around the world, and even the Japanese, take
potshots at Japanese creativity and innovation. But as we take a
look at the global toy industry, we find it is Japan and not the United
States that has been moving in new directions, as sales of traditional
toys stagnate. In “Flexing Your
Brain,” we found that Nintendo, hitting the wall a bit in
sales to kids, now has moved onto adults, offering games both in Japan
and now in the West that playfully exercise the brains of adults with
the hope of improving mental skills. But its toy industry is
generally vibrant because it has realized it can expand the $6 billion
domestic market for toys, “by marketing to adults as well as
children.” See the Economist, May 6, 2006, p.66.
“Japanese
men in their early middle-age can now relive the hit television series
of the 1970s, which featured super-heroes and super-robots piloted by
brave men out to save the world. These champions are now back,
with more gizmos.” “Robot Okoku (kingdom), a shop in Akihabara,
Tokyo’s geek district, has sold a couple of thousand remote-controlled
robots … the walking robot” costs $1,105. Masked raider belts,
once thought just for children, are also selling to the
middle-aged. “Abandoning high-tech for simplicity has been
another surprising success.” “As if to underline their success,
recent top-selling toys in America and Europe have been
Japanese.” The editor of Japan’s |